US-Iran Conflict Halts Strait of Hormuz Shipping, Threatening Fertilizer and Food Security

The escalation of the US-Iran conflict over the past two weeks has placed the Strait of Hormuz, situated at the heart of the Persian Gulf, under the global spotlight. This strait, which is only about 60 kilometers long, handles approximately one-third of the world's crude oil exports and serves as a critical logistics corridor for sulfur and other chemical products. As US sanctions on Iran intensify and maritime friction between the two sides increases, shipping companies have been forced to raise insurance premiums to mitigate risks. Delays and route diversions have extended sulfur transit times and increased costs. As an industrial raw material, sulfur plays a key role, particularly in fertilizer production; any disruption in its supply chain triggers cascading effects across global markets.

Sulfur's agricultural applications are primarily concentrated in the manufacture of nitrogen-phosphorus-sulfur fertilizers, such as ammonium sulfate and calcium sulfate. These fertilizers help adjust soil pH and improve micronutrient supply, making them particularly important for food crops in tropical and subtropical regions of Asia and Africa. Major global sulfur producers include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, and the United States, all of which rely on the same shipping route for maritime sulfur transport. When navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is hindered, sulfur supply volumes drop immediately, further impacting raw material intake for fertilizer production lines and forcing a reduction in capacity across the entire fertilizer industry chain.

Recent reports indicate that mining giants have been outbidding fertilizer manufacturers in sulfur auctions, with some companies pushing prices to historic highs to secure raw material supplies. This market behavior has compelled fertilizer companies to reduce their sulfur purchases, thereby scaling back fertilizer production. As fertilizer supplies shrink, farmers face rising planting costs, particularly in countries such as those in Africa and Southeast Asia that rely on imported fertilizers. This severely threatens the sustainability of agricultural production. If the fertilizer shortage persists, declining grain yields will drive up food prices, further exacerbating food security crises in impoverished regions.

On a broader scale, the war risk in the Strait of Hormuz affects not only sulfur and fertilizers but also the supply of oil, natural gas, and other chemical products. Impeded oil exports will cause energy prices to climb, further pushing up production costs. Simultaneously, sulfur shortages will impact raw material supplies for industries such as steel, chemical fertilizers, and pharmaceuticals, creating cross-industry chain reactions. For already fragile African and Asian economies, these rising costs could lead to slower economic growth and elevated risks of social instability.

In response to this challenge, the international community and national governments are considering diversifying raw material sources, enhancing domestic sulfur mining, and promoting alternative fertilizer technologies. Some countries have begun investing in sulfur recovery technologies to extract sulfur from industrial exhaust gases, aiming to reduce reliance on imports. Meanwhile, international organizations are calling on all parties to maintain the safety of shipping lanes and avoid maritime blockades caused by war. Stabilizing the sulfur supply chain in the short term would help alleviate rising agricultural costs and safeguard global food security. Market dynamics over the coming months will depend on the trajectory of US-Iran relations and the shipping industry's adjustment to risks.