US-China Summit Focuses on AI Safety and Preventing Military Miscalculation Risks

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a summit with visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, with both sides engaged in intensive consultations on multiple sensitive issues, including trade, energy, climate, and the Taiwan question. Bilateral relations have remained strained since 2020 due to trade frictions, technology embargoes, and geopolitical conflicts, with competition particularly intensifying in the high-tech sector. Although numerous divergences persist in trade and military security, analysts point out that the field of artificial intelligence (AI) may become a breakthrough area where both parties are willing to initiate dialogue. In this race, a sharp deceleration by either side would incur a heavy toll on the global industrial landscape and national security over the next decade.

The rapid evolution of AI technology is no longer merely an issue of industrial upgrading, but rather multi-dimensional, involving national defense, cybersecurity, and international norms. The US Artificial Intelligence Initiative, unveiled in 2022, emphasizes maintaining leadership in foundational models, computing power, and talent cultivation, while China has explicitly stated in its New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan that it aims to achieve self-sufficiency in core algorithms and critical chips. Investments by both sides in computing power centers, semiconductor supply chains, and big data resources have formed a zero-sum competitive landscape. If either party imposes excessive policy restrictions or retreats from international cooperation, it risks losing the early-mover advantage in global AI standard-setting, key technology exports, and market dominance.

Against this backdrop, the focus of bilateral negotiations has gradually shifted from who strikes first to how to avoid losing control. In recent years, the US Department of Defense and China's Ministry of National Defense have repeatedly called for the establishment of AI safety guardrails to prevent automated weapon systems from causing irreversible conflict due to miscalculation or malfunction. The two countries discussed similar mechanisms during their military hotline meetings late last year. Although no concrete document was produced, the discussions laid the foundation for subsequent technical dialogue. The upcoming summit is expected to include the specific operational details of these guardrails and hotlines on its agenda, with the expectation of establishing transparent risk assessment and emergency reporting channels without slowing the pace of technological R&D.

In addition to safety protections, both sides are also focusing on the ethics and governance of AI applications. The Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework, launched by the US in 2023, emphasizes that enterprises and governments must implement explainability and data privacy protection when deploying generative models. In the same year, China issued its Ethical Norms for New Generation Artificial Intelligence, calling for stronger regulation of deepfakes and information manipulation. The similarities between the two countries on these principles provide a common language for dialogue and could pave the way for cooperation frameworks to jointly promote global AI governance within international organizations such as the United Nations or the G20. Reaching a certain consensus on standard-setting and information sharing will help reduce the security risks brought about by technological spillovers while preventing market fragmentation caused by regulatory discrepancies.

Finally, the AI race also carries profound implications for future economic structures. According to various studies, the AI industry is expected to contribute hundreds of billions of dollars to global GDP over the next decade, while reshaping traditional industries such as manufacturing, finance, and healthcare. If the two major economies can maintain technological vitality while establishing mutual trust mechanisms and risk-prevention measures, they will set a positive example for global technological innovation. Conversely, if the competition evolves into an unbridled arms race, it could trigger a new round of technology blockades and supply chain disruptions, dealing a blow to global economic recovery. The outcome of this summit—whether concrete agreements on AI guardrails or operational details of hotline mechanisms—will serve as a crucial indicator for observing the future trajectory of US-China relations.