Ukraine, US and Russia to hold November talks as Zelenskyy seeks leverage

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on the 25th of this month that trilateral talks among Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow are planned for November, aiming to restart peace negotiations that have long been deadlocked. More than four years have passed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the ongoing conflict draining the resources of both nations and fueling growing international expectations for a peaceful resolution. Zelenskyy’s remarks come as Ukrainian military operations have achieved localized breakthroughs in the east and south, indicating Kyiv’s intention to leverage its battlefield advantages into political bargaining chips through diplomatic channels.

The concept of trilateral talks is not new. As early as early 2022, Ukraine and Russia held “Kyiv-Washington-Moscow” trilateral meetings under Turkish mediation, seeking consensus on a ceasefire and territorial disputes. Subsequent Minsk agreements and Paris talks also attempted to include the United States as a security guarantor within the framework. However, deep divisions between the two sides on core issues such as security guarantees, territorial integrity, and the lifting of sanctions have repeatedly stalled negotiations. The November talks announced this time represent a correction and continuation of those previous failed attempts, hoping to break the deadlock through a more flexible agenda.

The United States continues to play a key mediating role in this round of negotiations. Since the outbreak of the war, Washington has not only provided large-scale military aid but has also used economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure to compel Russia to negotiate. U.S. defense and foreign affairs departments have repeatedly emphasized that sustained military support should not hinder peace, but rather serves as a necessary means to secure negotiating leverage for Ukraine. The U.S. has also stated that if Russia engages in sincere peace dialogue, it will consider gradually easing some sanctions in exchange for substantive Russian concessions on the issue of Ukrainian territory. This “sanctions for peace” strategy positions the United States in the talks as both a promoter and a guardian of its own interests.

The Moscow side continues to emphasize the prerequisites of “security guarantees” and “demilitarization.” The Russian Foreign Ministry recently stated that any peace agreement must ensure that Russia is not threatened by the eastward expansion of NATO, and demands that Ukraine abandon its intent to join the alliance. Russia has also used the “special status” of eastern Ukraine as a bargaining chip, demanding greater autonomy for the region in future political arrangements. Nevertheless, the Russian government faces dual challenges from economic pressure and the prolonged military war, both domestically and internationally. This has prompted Moscow to adopt a relatively pragmatic stance on the diplomatic stage, expressing willingness to explore specific ceasefire mechanisms and humanitarian aid corridors during the November talks.

If the November trilateral talks are successfully held, they will have a profound impact on the European security landscape. The European Union and NATO have long been concerned about Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. If initial consensus is reached in these negotiations, it could alleviate the pressure of the energy crisis and refugee flows, while also providing an opportunity for the lifting of some international sanctions against Russia. Conversely, if the talks fall into a deadlock again, it may exacerbate military tensions in Eastern Europe and further deteriorate U.S.-Russia relations, thereby weakening international confidence in multilateral diplomatic mechanisms. All parties are currently weighing political interests against strategic risks, leaving the future trajectory full of uncertainty.

Overall, the November trilateral talks announced by Zelenskyy represent a crucial step for Ukraine in seeking a diplomatic breakthrough amid the ongoing war. They test not only the strength of U.S. commitment to Ukraine but also Russia’s willingness to make concessions under international pressure. The ability of all parties to find a balance on security guarantees, territorial arrangements, and sanctions will determine the future direction of peace and stability in Eastern Europe. (Source: Central News Agency)