Philippines Invites China to ADMM-Plus, Shaping South China Sea Security

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held the 20th ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) and the 13th ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) on the 28th of this month in Manila, the Philippines. Hosted by the Philippines, the meetings focused on regional security, maritime cooperation, and counter-terrorism. Since its inception in 2000, the ADMM has evolved into a multi-functional mechanism encompassing military exchanges, intelligence sharing, training, and disaster relief coordination, providing Southeast Asian nations with a platform to balance the influence of major powers and safeguard maritime trade routes.

During the preparations for the meetings, the Philippine government stated clearly that it had formally issued an invitation to China to participate, though as of press time, Beijing had yet to confirm its attendance. This move not only demonstrates the Philippines' open attitude toward China's role in regional security affairs, but also reflects the delicate relationship between the two sides amid South China Sea sovereignty disputes. Since the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Manila, tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea have periodically escalated, and Manila has repeatedly called on Beijing to respect international law. Nevertheless, the Philippines continues to seek multilateral dialogue within ASEAN to balance U.S. military assistance and China's economic influence.

Should China ultimately confirm its participation, it would have a profound impact on the regional security architecture. ADMM-Plus has already incorporated the United States, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and India, forming a multilateral security dialogue mechanism between these "five major powers" and ASEAN member states. China's participation could further expand the scope of this platform and promote coordination and cooperation among all parties in areas such as maritime security, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, and disaster relief. Conversely, if China chooses not to participate, ASEAN nations may continue to maintain regional security within the existing framework of the five major powers, or it could intensify U.S.-China competition in the South China Sea.

In addition, the ADMM-Plus agenda covers emerging threats such as cyberattacks, terrorism, and transnational crime. Prior to the meetings, the Philippine host government repeatedly emphasized that the core of the mechanism is "mutual defense and cooperation" rather than confrontation. If China is able to express its commitment to shared security during the meetings, it will help alleviate regional tensions and lay the foundation for future multilateral cooperation. On the other hand, if China is absent, ASEAN nations may need to reassess their strategies regarding the South China Sea and maritime commerce security, or strengthen military cooperation with the United States to maintain regional balance.

Overall, the convening of the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting is not merely a routine security dialogue, but a microcosm of the geopolitical maneuvering among regional major powers and the relations among multilateral actors. By inviting China, the host country, the Philippines, is also sending a signal to the international community: ASEAN is committed to finding room for cooperation amid major power competition to preserve regional stability and peace. If China confirms its participation in the future, it will further validate ASEAN's initiative and influence within the multilateral security architecture; if it does not participate, it may prompt ASEAN to seek broader international support for security cooperation. Regardless of the outcome, these meetings will serve as an important window for observing changes in the Southeast Asian security landscape.