Midterms Will Determine Trump Tariffs as Democrats Seek Political Leverage

The upcoming U.S. midterm elections on the 3rd will determine the majority seats in both houses of Congress. If the Democratic Party recaptures control of either the House of Representatives or the Senate, President Trump's trade agenda will face unprecedented political resistance. Experts point out that the next Congress will exert pressure on Trump's trade policy through oversight hearings, agenda reviews, and symbolic votes to repeal tariffs. However, Trump still intends to press forward with more tariff measures and does not rule out the possibility of imposing additional tariffs on other countries.

Since 2018, the Trump administration has levied high tariffs on goods from numerous countries and regions—including China, Taiwan, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico—under the banners of "fair trade" and "national security," most notably targeting steel, aluminum, and a range of high-tech products from China. While this trade war temporarily boosted U.S. tariff revenues, it simultaneously triggered the restructuring of global supply chains, slowed exports, and drove up consumer prices. In 2023, the Trump administration levied additional tariffs on steel and aluminum, incorporating some of these duties into the U.S. Defense Trade Act to emphasize national security. Although these measures have received support from certain industrial sectors, they have also faced fierce opposition from the business community, academia, and some international organizations.

If the Democrats win a congressional majority in the midterm elections, they will have the opportunity to use their leadership positions in the House and Senate to convene oversight hearings on tariff and trade policies. Democratic lawmakers typically advocate for an approach centered on negotiation and consultation, expressing concern over the economic burdens and risks to foreign relations posed by tariffs. Through hearings, Democrats can invite industry representatives, academics, and international experts to voice their opinions, thereby clarifying the flaws of tariff policy to Congress. Subsequently, Congress might also hold symbolic votes to repeal tariffs; while lacking legal binding force, such votes would demonstrate Congress's opposition to Trump's tariff policy. More importantly, a Democratic majority in Congress would allow them to control tariff-related committees, enabling them to exercise substantive review and revision of tariff bills during the legislative process.

However, Trump has shown no sign of backing down in the face of this political challenge. According to multiple congressional aides, Trump will continue to push for more tariff measures under the guise of "national security" and "fair trade." This could target not only high-tech products from China, but potentially expand to other countries such as Russia and Iran, or involve the adoption of even stricter protectionist policies for critical domestic U.S. industries like semiconductors and aluminum. Trump's strategy appears to be maintaining control over tariffs through executive means regardless of changes in congressional majorities, and continuing to execute his protectionist trade route via executive orders or adjustments to international trade agreements.

This situation has profound implications for the U.S. economy and the international trading system. First, if tariff policies continue to escalate, they will further disrupt global supply chains, particularly in high-tech industries such as semiconductors and automotive parts. U.S. companies could lose their edge in global competition due to rising costs, leading to their replacement by firms from other countries. Second, regarding foreign relations, the tariff war could strain ties between the United States and its major trading partners, eroding American leverage in global trade negotiations. Third, in terms of domestic politics, tariff disputes could become a focal point of partisan confrontation, further exacerbating the divide between the two parties and undermining the efficiency of national governance.

Overall, the outcome of the midterm elections will directly affect the trade policy direction of the Trump administration. Even if Democrats secure a congressional majority, it may not completely overturn Trump's tariff policies, given the considerable flexibility that remains at the executive level. Nevertheless, congressional oversight and review mechanisms will bring greater transparency and checks and balances to tariff policy, potentially forcing Trump to exercise greater caution when promoting new tariffs. The future trajectory of trade will depend on the interaction between the two parties in Congress, decision-making at the executive level, and changes in the global economic environment. (Source: Central News Agency)