Japan to close 145 high schools by 2040 amid population decline

Japan is facing an unprecedented demographic decline, and the accelerating trend of declining birth rates has posed a significant challenge to the allocation of educational resources. According to recent reports from Japanese media, at least 145 high schools across the country are expected to close before 2040 due to insufficient student enrollment. This figure not only reflects profound shifts in the population structure but also reveals the multiple shocks that local communities will face in terms of education, employment, and social structure. The closure of high schools is more than just a reduction in the number of schools; it is a reflection of the outflow of local talent, declining economic vitality, and weakening social cohesion.

The fundamental cause of high school closures is the prolonged low birth rate. Japan’s total fertility rate has remained below the replacement level since the 1990s, with a trend of accelerated decline in recent years. Another survey indicates that the proportion of families wishing to have a second child has halved compared to six years ago, demonstrating that even with various government support policies for childbearing, it remains difficult to reverse the trend of population decline. Behind the falling birth rate, in addition to economic pressures and rising child-rearing costs, women’s participation in the workforce and the balance between work and life are also key factors.

The impact of high school closures on local economies and social structures should not be underestimated. High schools are not only places for student learning but also cultural and activity hubs for local communities. The disappearance of schools is often accompanied by the outflow of students, which further weakens the local labor market and consumer demand. Over the long term, this population outflow creates a vicious cycle: a lack of educational opportunities leads families to relocate to cities with larger populations, further exacerbating population decline in rural areas. In response, some local governments have begun to explore innovative models, such as merging schools, introducing remote education, or transforming schools into multi-functional community centers, in an effort to sustain educational services and community vitality.

In the face of this challenge, the Japanese government has begun to adjust its relevant policies. In addition to increasing economic subsidies for families with children and expanding childcare facilities, the government is also promoting flexible working hours and remote work to reduce conflicts between child-rearing and employment. The Ministry of Education has also proposed a "Higher Education Restructuring Plan," encouraging cooperation between high schools and universities, promoting career-oriented curricula, and strengthening support for students from ethnic minorities and immigrant backgrounds, aiming to alleviate the social pressures caused by population decline through diversified talent development.

Internationally, other countries facing population decline have similar experiences. Some regions in Europe have begun to close or merge schools and use the attraction of immigrants and the creation of employment opportunities to balance their population structures. If Japan can draw on the successful cases of these countries and combine them with its own cultural and economic characteristics, it may find a more sustainable balance between maintaining educational quality and promoting local economic development. Over the next decade, how to preserve educational resources and sustain local communities against the backdrop of population decline will become a core issue for Japanese social policy. (Factual source: CNA)