Japan's Ishiba Cabinet seeks APEC summit breakthrough for bilateral talks with China

With the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit set to open in Shenzhen, China, this November, high-level diplomatic developments within the Asia-Pacific region are drawing intense attention. According to a recent report by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, the Japanese government is actively assessing and planning to seek the possibility of holding a bilateral leaders' summit with China on the sidelines of the meeting. However, given the currently sluggish, sensitive, and complex state of bilateral relations between Japan and China, diplomatic communication and coordination between the two sides may struggle to fully match past precedents and smooth rhythms. Whether this potential leaders' meeting can be successfully realized and achieve substantive progress will test the political wisdom of both nations' diplomatic teams.

Reviewing Japan-China relations in recent years, structural divergences and friction have consistently persisted between the two sides over issues such as historical memory, the sovereignty dispute over the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku Islands), and Japan's discharge of treated radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Particularly in the realm of security, China's frequent military activities in the East and South China seas, coupled with Japan's significant adjustments to its security strategy in recent years and the strengthening of its defense cooperation with the United States and other like-minded nations, have maintained a high level of vigilance from Beijing. These accumulated deficits in political mutual trust have often caused high-level interactions between the two countries to become perfunctory, or have required lengthy and arduous behind-the-scenes negotiations during specific multilateral diplomatic occasions to achieve limited contact.

Despite the numerous obstacles facing bilateral relations, holding leadership meetings through international multilateral conferences has always been an important diplomatic mechanism for managing crises and preventing conflicts from escalating. For the Tokyo authorities, seeking a meeting with the Chinese leader during the APEC summit aligns with Japan's consistent tone of a "mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests," while also demonstrating Japan's posture of willingness to resolve problems through dialogue. Since taking office, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet has faced complex domestic and international economic and security challenges. Stabilizing economic, trade, and political relations with China, its largest neighbor, is crucial to Japan's national interests, naturally leading the foreign ministry to prioritize leader diplomacy.

However, the report also pointed out that as bilateral relations have not yet fully emerged from their trough, related coordination work for the talks faces numerous variables. In the past, ahead of similar international summits, Japan and China typically engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy through diplomatic channels to reach consensus on the agenda, specific timing, and mutually acceptable rhetoric for the talks. Yet under the current atmosphere, Beijing still harbors strong dissatisfaction with certain regional security policies of the Japanese side. Whether it is willing to spare time to meet with the Japanese leader during APEC is still undergoing comprehensive internal assessment in Beijing, which adds uncertainty to Japan's diplomatic probings.

From a macro regional and international perspective, Japan and China are both economic giants in the Asia-Pacific region. The stability of their bilateral relations directly affects the peace, prosperity, and supply chain security of the entire East Asian region. APEC is inherently an important platform for promoting regional economic integration and political dialogue. If a Japan-China leaders' meeting can be facilitated during the summit, it will not only help ease current bilateral tensions but also send a positive signal to the international community that major Asia-Pacific economies are willing to manage differences through communication. Conversely, if the talks fall through or fail to take place, it may reflect that the deep-seated contradictions between the two countries are difficult to resolve, and geopolitical risks in the region could remain taut.

Looking at the overall picture, the Japanese government will inevitably step up behind-the-scenes diplomatic communication with the Chinese side in the coming weeks in an effort to break the deadlock. The upcoming summit in Shenzhen is not only an important moment to test the achievements of Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation, but also a crucial touchstone for whether Japan and China can find a way to coexist and restart high-level dialogue. The international community is closely watching the diplomatic movements of both sides, expecting them to demonstrate the stature of major powers and make constructive efforts for regional stability.