Japan Revises Security Docs, Skipping Trump's 3.5% Target While Raising Defense Spending to 5% GDP

The Japanese government is preparing to revise the "Three National Security Documents" by the end of this year. Notably, the target set by U.S. President Donald Trump for defense spending to reach 3.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) within the next five years has not been explicitly incorporated into the revisions. Nevertheless, the government has stated its intention to significantly increase defense expenditures, aiming to secure understanding and support from Washington. This decision reflects Japan’s dual considerations regarding regional security pressures and U.S. security commitments.

Known as the Three National Security Documents, these comprise Japan’s Defense White Paper, National Defense Program Guidelines, and Defense Budget Plan, collectively forming the core of the country’s national security policy. Over the past decade, Japan’s defense spending as a share of GDP has risen from 1.5 percent to approximately 2.5 percent, yet it remains lower than the U.S. share of costs for military forces stationed in Japan. During his term, President Trump repeatedly called on Japan to increase its defense contributions, citing the 3.5 percent figure as a benchmark. While the Japanese government did not adopt this figure as a rigid condition in the document revisions, the proposed budget projects that defense spending will rise to approximately 5 percent of GDP. The annual increase is set at between 5 and 7 percent, a marked acceleration from the roughly 3 percent annual growth rate observed in recent years, which will impose a significantly heavier fiscal burden.

One primary driver for the increased defense spending is the deteriorating regional security environment. China’s military expansion in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, coupled with North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile threats, have compelled Japan to reassess its defensive capabilities. Furthermore, domestic debates regarding the role of the Self-Defense Forces and the expansion of military equipment have intensified, requiring the government to strike a balance between safeguarding national security and addressing public concerns. A failure to increase investment could be perceived as a deviation from Japan’s security commitments to the United States, further eroding trust within the U.S.-Japan alliance.

From a fiscal perspective, a significant rise in defense costs will impact Japan’s public finances. Japan’s public debt has long exceeded twice its GDP, and any substantial budget increase could trigger market concerns regarding fiscal sustainability. The government has indicated it will mitigate economic impacts through measures such as tax increases, reductions in non-military spending, and optimization of budget allocation. However, if defense spending continues to climb, it may place pressure on social welfare, education, and infrastructure investments.

Looking ahead, Japan’s defense policy will face challenges on both the international and domestic fronts. Internationally, while U.S. expectations for Japan’s defense spending remain undefined, the mutual trust within the U.S.-Japan alliance requires reinforcement through tangible investment. Domestically, failing to achieve a reasonable balance between public finances and national defense needs could spark a crisis of confidence among voters, potentially influencing the outcomes of future elections. Ultimately, the central challenge for the Japanese government will be maintaining national security while ensuring economic and social stability.

(Source: Central News Agency)