Experts Warn China's Gray Zone Tactics Threaten Taiwan Strait and Global Supply Chains

Malaysian think-tank researcher Rizal published a special article on the 12th pointing out that China is exerting pressure on Taiwan through increasingly frequent gray-zone tactics. He noted that this continuous geopolitical tension is by no means merely a cross-strait affair, but will directly impact supply chain security and critical shipping lifelines throughout the Southeast Asian region. Taiwan plays an indispensable core role in global high-tech manufacturing and regional trade networks. Once the situation in the Taiwan Strait changes due to Beijing's maximum pressure, the chain reaction will quickly spread to ASEAN nations, posing a severe challenge to regional economic stability.

In this widely noted analytical article, Rizal specifically emphasized Taiwan's critical strategic position in the global economic system. As the primary production base for global semiconductors and advanced electronic components, Taiwan connects a complete technology industrial chain from East Asia to Southeast Asia. From upstream wafer manufacturing to downstream assembly and testing, many ASEAN countries' manufacturing sectors are highly dependent on intermediate goods and technical support supplied by Taiwan. If China's military intimidation or economic coercion escalates further, disrupting Taiwan's foreign trade and production lines, related industries in Southeast Asian countries will face supply chain disruption crises, which in turn will impact local labor markets and overall economic growth momentum.

In addition to the vulnerability of industrial supply chains, the security of maritime shipping is a major risk that ASEAN countries must confront. The Taiwan Strait and adjacent waters are among the busiest international shipping routes in the world, with a significant proportion of global container ships and energy transport vessels passing through this region. In recent years, Beijing authorities have continuously normalized maritime coercion against Taiwan through gray-zone tactics such as coast guard patrols, military aircraft crossing the median line, and maritime militia. These provocative actions often deliberately walk the line of war and are packaged in the name of maritime law enforcement or safeguarding sovereignty, attempting to change the status quo and achieve de facto control over key waters without triggering a full-scale military conflict.

This strategy of "law-enforcement" maritime coercion undoubtedly sounds the alarm for ASEAN countries that rely on maritime trade for their livelihood. The waters surrounding the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait are internationally recognized zones of freedom of navigation. If China successfully normalizes gray-zone operations around Taiwan and gains acquiescence, it is highly likely to replicate this model in other disputed waters of the South China Sea in the future. This would severely threaten the freedom of navigation for merchant ships and maritime security of various Southeast Asian nations, exposing economies within the region that depend on maritime imports and exports to extreme political and military risks, and potentially forcing them to make compromises among major powers.

Faced with systematic pressure from Beijing, Rizal called on ASEAN countries in his article to break away from the traditional mindset of "keeping economics and politics separate" and to face up to the substantial impact that the situation in the Taiwan Strait brings to Southeast Asia. "A contingency in Taiwan is not just Taiwan's problem" has become an important warning for current security in the Indo-Pacific region. If ASEAN member states continue to adopt an ostrich mentality and ignore the destructive power that geopolitical conflicts inflict on regional supply chains and freedom of navigation, they may be caught off guard when a crisis erupts. Countries within the region should strengthen maritime intelligence sharing and clearly express their stance of upholding peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea in multilateral diplomatic arenas. Together, they should deter any attempts to use gray-zone tactics to disrupt the status quo, thereby ensuring that Southeast Asia's economic prosperity and navigation safety are not subject to arbitrary interference by external forces.