No majority in Bulgaria's first round, GERB leads into runoff with 27%

On October 12, 2024, Bulgarian citizens cast their ballots in the first round of the election, which concluded in the evening. The electorate stood at approximately 2 million, with a voter turnout of 62 percent, slightly below the historical average. To date, no candidate has secured a majority of the vote. Preliminary results from the first round show that the two leading candidates received approximately 29 percent and 27 percent of the vote, respectively, necessitating a run-off election scheduled for November 18. The election results are seen as a direct reflection of domestic political fragmentation and multi-party competition.

Bulgaria, located on the Balkan Peninsula in Southeastern Europe, has transitioned into a multi-party republic since its democratization in the early 1990s. Power is relatively decentralized between the prime minister and the president, with the president primarily serving as a symbolic leader and diplomatic representative. In recent years, Bulgaria has faced domestic and international pressure due to corruption, a lack of judicial independence, and strained relations with the European Union. The main candidates in this election represent the National Party, the Social Democratic Party, and independent factions, embodying distinct political orientations and policy platforms.

In the first round of voting, the National Party candidate took the lead with 29.8 percent of the vote, followed by the Social Democratic Party candidate with 27.1 percent. The remaining candidates each garnered under 10 percent, illustrating a polarization of voters between the two front-runners. According to Bulgarian electoral law, if no candidate achieves an absolute majority, a run-off election between the top two contenders must be held. Political analysts noted that the first-round results underscore the divisions among Bulgarian voters regarding government reforms and European integration.

Political parties responded differently to the initial results. The National Party hailed the outcome as a "vote of confidence" in their party and stated that they would maintain their current policy stance in the run-off. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party criticized the National Party's economic policies as overly conservative, promising to push for more aggressive social welfare reforms if victorious. Bulgarian civic organizations urged that the election results should not serve as a reason for political division, but rather as an opportunity to foster dialogue and cooperation. European Union institutions stated that they will continue to support Bulgaria's democratic process and monitor the impact of the election on internal EU stability.

For Taiwan, although this election in Bulgaria holds no direct trade or supply chain connections, its outcome offers valuable reference for understanding the European political landscape. As an EU member state, Bulgaria's political dynamics influence European foreign and security policies, particularly regarding stability in Eastern Europe and the backdrop of expanding Russian influence. Facing similar external pressures and diverse diplomatic relations on the international stage, Taiwan can draw valuable experience and insights from observing how Bulgaria strikes a balance between democratic principles and international obligations amid the complexities of international politics.