IAEA Projects Triple Nuclear Growth to Meet One-Third of Global Electricity Demand by 2060

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a statement at the United Nations headquarters in New York, projecting that global nuclear power capacity could more than triple by 2060. According to the IAEA’s latest statistics, the current global nuclear capacity stands at approximately 410 gigawatts. If this growth trajectory holds, capacity is expected to surpass 1,200 gigawatts by 2060. This figure equates to roughly one-third of current global electricity demand, indicating that nuclear energy may play a more significant role in the future energy mix.

The primary drivers behind the surge in nuclear demand are first and foremost the global electrification process. As the automotive, aviation, and industrial sectors progressively electrify, electricity demand is growing exponentially. Second, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and large data centers is placing higher demands on the stability and capacity of power supply. Training and inference for AI models often require continuous power supplies ranging from tens to hundreds of megawatts, a peak load that traditional energy sources struggle to meet. Furthermore, tech giants are actively investing in nuclear energy to ensure low-carbon and stable power supply, viewing it as a key alternative to fossil fuels.

The expansion of nuclear energy is closely linked to climate change targets. Under the Paris Agreement, the world must limit warming to within 2 degrees Celsius by mid-century, or even stricter to 1.5 degrees Celsius. As a zero-carbon emission power generation method, nuclear electricity effectively reduces the carbon footprint of fossil fuels. If nuclear capacity reaches the levels predicted by the IAEA, it will provide stable, high-capacity base power in the global energy transition, compensating for the intermittency and volatility of renewable energy sources.

However, the expansion of nuclear energy also presents a series of challenges. Safety remains the most sensitive issue, particularly in the high-frequency operation and maintenance of nuclear reactors, where any error could lead to disaster. The long-term treatment and storage of nuclear waste also require more robust technical and policy safeguards. More importantly, the risk of nuclear technology proliferation could be exploited by countries or organizations lacking strict oversight, posing a potential threat to international security. The IAEA simultaneously called on countries to strengthen international cooperation to ensure the peaceful use and safe management of nuclear technology.

In response to future needs, several countries worldwide have begun deploying next-generation nuclear technologies. The United States and multiple European countries are pushing for the commercialization of small modular reactors (SMRs), which offer shorter construction cycles, lower investment thresholds, and easier integration with distributed energy systems. China is also accelerating the design and construction of new-type nuclear power plants and actively participating in international nuclear cooperation. If these technological advancements achieve breakthroughs in safety and cost, they will provide a sustainable technical foundation for the global expansion of nuclear energy.

In summary, the IAEA’s forecast reveals the potential importance of nuclear energy in the future energy transition. If challenges related to safety, waste, and proliferation can be overcome, nuclear power could become a key pillar in achieving a low-carbon economy and energy security. Countries must exert efforts simultaneously in technological innovation, policy formulation, and international regulation to ensure the steady development of nuclear energy between 2050 and 2060. (Source: Central News Agency)