Xi Jinping returns to White House after 11 years, focusing on South China Sea and tech friction

Chinese President Xi Jinping stepped into the White House once again on the 24th, Eastern Time, marking his return exactly eleven years after holding a joint press conference in the Rose Garden with then-US President Barack Obama in 2015. That year's talks were regarded as a high point in bilateral relations, with both sides engaging in dialogue on multiple issues including trade, climate change, and global governance, followed shortly by the signing of the US-China Joint Statement, symbolizing the two nations seeking a balance between cooperation and competition. This visit to the US comes at a critical juncture as American policy toward China gradually shifts from "engagement" to "competition," with the Biden administration having strengthened its China strategy over consecutive years—including enhancing cooperation with allies, intensifying high-tech restrictions against China, and deploying more military resources in the Indo-Pacific region. Consequently, Xi's trip to the White House has been interpreted by outside observers as a window for China to test the US response to its new policies on the diplomatic stage.

Prior to this meeting, international affairs experts pointed out that in 2015, Xi publicly declared that China's related construction in the Spratly Islands had "no intention of pursuing militarization" and promised to abide by international law and norms. However, over the ensuing decade, military deployments in the South China Sea have continued to escalate. According to public information, China has successively established runways, radar stations, and air defense systems on artificial islands in the Spratlys, and in recent years deployed surface-to-air missiles and fighter jets, prompting neighboring countries and the US to express concern. These facts stand in stark contrast to the promises made back then, and have also become one of the issues US officials are likely to raise during the talks. Experts believe that if the US is to maintain the principles of freedom of navigation and territorial integrity in the Indo-Pacific region, it must subject China's practical actions to more rigorous scrutiny and response.

In addition to the South China Sea issue, Xi's agenda during this US visit also involves friction in the trade and technology sectors. Since the US implemented stricter export controls on Chinese high-tech products starting in 2022, competition between the two countries in critical technologies such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and 5G has intensified by the day. Meanwhile, China has attempted to enhance the self-sufficiency capacity of its domestic industries through the "Made in China 2025" and "dual circulation" strategies. The dialogue between the two sides at the White House is expected to focus on how to avoid escalating conflict while competing, and to explore the possibility of cooperation on global challenges such as climate change and public health. This framework of "competitive cooperation" is precisely the concrete manifestation of the concept of "strategic stability" as described by current international relations scholars.

Taiwan's role in this context cannot be ignored either. Since US policy toward China shifted to center on a "free and open Indo-Pacific," Taiwan's security and level of international participation have received greater attention. In recent years, the US Congress has repeatedly passed arms sales to Taiwan and strengthened official interactions with Taiwan, demonstrating the intensity of political and military support for the island. If Xi's trip to the White House touches upon the Taiwan issue, it may test the flexibility and bottom line of the US within the framework of its "one-China policy." Observers note that any rhetoric or action concerning the stability of the Taiwan Strait will be scrutinized under a magnifying glass, as it directly impacts regional security and the strategic deployment of the US in the Asia-Pacific.

In summary, Xi's return to the White House is not merely a continuation of an individual diplomatic itinerary, but an important node in the multi-faceted interactions between the two major powers. The gap between past promises and practical actions, particularly on the issue of South China Sea militarization, will become a key indicator for outsiders to evaluate the credibility of China's policies. The future trajectory of US-China relations still depends on the negotiation results of both sides in areas such as trade, technology, geopolitics, and global governance, as well as changes in their respective internal political dynamics. The outcome of this White House meeting will, to a certain extent, shape the future security landscape of the Indo-Pacific and the direction of the international order for the coming year and even longer.