Trump-Xi Meeting Draws Attention to Imminent US-Taiwan Arms Sales

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold his third bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the 19th of this month. The two sides will discuss a range of global and regional issues, with the US arms sales to Taiwan attracting the most attention. Since 2023, the United States has submitted multiple authorizations to Congress seeking approval for approximately $14 billion in arms sales, covering advanced missile systems, fighter jet components, and air defense systems. This case not only represents a continuation of US-Taiwan military cooperation but also marks a substantive adjustment to the US "One China" policy, as Washington has integrated the Taiwan Relations Act with the National Defense Authorization Act, viewing arms sales to Taiwan as a key means of maintaining stability across the Taiwan Strait.

The $14 billion arms sale package has been included on the US Congress’s annual authorization list since 2018 and was finally approved after multiple revisions in 2022. The package covers the latest US fighter jet components, radar systems, and missile defense equipment, constituting a significant reinforcement of Taiwan’s air defense network and maritime forces. Taiwan has stated that these assets will further enhance its self-defense capabilities and provide greater strategic autonomy in the face of potential military pressure from China. US scholars note that if the case is delayed due to political or diplomatic pressures, it will undermine Taiwan’s confidence in facing Beijing’s military threats and may be interpreted by Beijing as a sign of fragility in US policy toward Taiwan, thereby exacerbating cross-strait tensions.

Against this backdrop, a group of US scholars published a commentary on the 13th of this month, urging the Trump administration to immediately notify Congress and approve a small batch of arms sales to Taiwan. These scholars, primarily from defense research institutions and universities, emphasized that delaying approval would give Beijing more reason to believe that the US stance on the Taiwan Strait issue is not firm, and could prompt China to accelerate its military deployments or increase political pressure. The scholars pointed out that if the US fails to approve small-scale arms sales before the talks, Taiwan will be at a disadvantage in facing upcoming military challenges, further weakening its voice and influence in the international community.

Complex political trade-offs also exist within the US. Although the Taiwan Relations Act explicitly stipulates that the US will provide Taiwan with necessary defensive weapons, actual authorization still requires a majority vote in Congress. In recent years, some Democratic lawmakers have held a reserved attitude toward large-scale arms sales, concerned that such moves could escalate US-China relations or even trigger a larger-scale military conflict. The Trump administration has repeatedly stated in public that arms sales to Taiwan are a necessary means of maintaining regional security, while also striving to maintain economic and diplomatic relations with Beijing. This dual posture has made the approval of small-scale arms sales a viable compromise, satisfying Taiwan’s security needs while mitigating the impact on US-China relations to some extent.

For Taiwan, the progress of this arms sale package is directly related to the sustainability of its defense strategy. Taiwan’s air defense network has been gradually upgraded over the past decade, but facing China’s increasingly enhanced missile and aviation capabilities, it still requires more advanced equipment to maintain deterrence. If the US can approve small-scale arms sales before the Trump-Xi meeting, it will provide Taiwan with critical tactical support and enhance its defense capabilities in the maritime and aerial domains in the short term. Conversely, if the US delays approval, Taiwan may be forced to accelerate its own R&D or seek aid from other countries, increasing defense costs and risks.

Considering the above factors, the decision facing the Trump administration is not merely a question of arms sale authorization, but a critical moment for the US to balance competition with China and maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait on the global strategic stage. If small-scale arms sales are approved before the talks, it will demonstrate the US’s firm support for Taiwan and may, to some extent, curb Beijing’s military actions. Conversely, if approval is delayed or refused, it could heat up the situation in the Taiwan Strait and bring greater uncertainty to cross-strait relations. (Factual source: CNA)