Scholars Warn of Triple Disaster if China Invades Taiwan

Whether the United States should directly deploy troops in a Taiwan Strait conflict has long been a focal point of international political discourse. Recently, several American scholars pointed out at an international relations forum that the stance opposing U.S. intervention suffers from two major flaws: first, it underestimates the impact that Beijing capturing Taiwan would have on regional security and the international order; second, it overestimates the ability of the U.S. to effectively deter China from becoming a regional hegemon after the fall of Taiwan. These perspectives have not only reignited the internal debate within the U.S. regarding its "cross-strait policy," but have also drawn renewed attention from Taiwan's political circles and public toward the future trajectory of cross-strait relations.

On the issue of the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan's geopolitical advantage and the "three commitments" of the United States—namely, maintaining cross-strait stability, safeguarding Taiwan's security, and preserving U.S. leadership in the Asia-Pacific region—form the three core pillars of U.S. policy toward Taiwan. Scholars point out that if Beijing successfully annexes Taiwan, it will lead to disastrous consequences across three dimensions. Economically, Taiwan is a vital node in the global semiconductor supply chain; its loss would deliver a massive shock to the global electronics industry. Technologically, Taiwan's technological advantages in chip manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing would be stripped away, further weakening the competitive edge of the U.S. and its allies in the high-tech race. Strategically, the loss of Taiwan would enable China to establish more favorable military deployments in the South and East China Seas, further challenging the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific and potentially rewriting the regional balance of power.

From a historical perspective, Taiwan was once an important U.S. military stronghold in Asia. During the Cold War, the U.S. provided military aid and defense agreements based on the "Taiwan Security Clause." With Taiwan's democratization and changes in cross-strait relations, the effectiveness of this clause has gradually been called into question. However, in recent years, the U.S. Congress has repeatedly passed the Taiwan Relations Act and the Taiwan Travel Act, demonstrating that the U.S. commitment to Taiwan's security remains intact. Nevertheless, these bills do not explicitly mandate that the U.S. must deploy troops in a Taiwan Strait conflict, leading to uncertainty in policy implementation.

Scholars point out that a U.S. strategy of "preemption" or "delayed intervention" in a Taiwan Strait conflict will depend on multiple factors. First are China's military deployments and strategic intentions; second is the domestic political environment in the U.S. and congressional support for military intervention; and third are the reactions of the international community and the positions of other major powers. If the U.S. chooses not to intervene, it could be seen as tacit approval of China's ambitions, further eroding its moral and military leadership in Asia. Conversely, if the U.S. intervenes excessively, it could trigger a larger-scale conflict or even lead to a nuclear crisis.

In Taiwanese society, discussions over whether the U.S. should deploy troops are no longer merely political issues, but have become a profound concern among the public regarding national security and future direction. While the majority of the public supports the U.S. providing military assistance when necessary, some also worry that excessive reliance on the U.S. could undermine Taiwan's own defense autonomy. Against this backdrop, the Taiwanese government is actively promoting the development of "autonomous defense" and "defense technology" to reduce reliance on external forces, while simultaneously maintaining diplomatic diversification by seeking cooperation with countries such as Europe and Australia.

Looking ahead, the future direction of the situation in the Taiwan Strait will depend on China's military actions, Taiwan's defense preparations, and U.S. diplomatic and military decision-making. Scholars call for Taiwan to strengthen its autonomy across the three major areas of economics, technology, and strategy—regardless of whether the U.S. chooses to deploy troops—in order to maintain resilience and flexibility when facing a potential conflict. If Taiwan falls, it will not only mean the loss of national sovereignty, but could also cause profound shocks to the global economy and technology sectors, further reshaping the power structure of the Asia-Pacific region.