Ko Wen-je warns Zhubei blue-white alliance collapse could trigger nationwide impact

The mayoral election in Zhubei was originally viewed as a crucial test for the "Kuomintang-Taiwan People's Party (KMT-TPP) alliance," in which the TPP—positioned outside the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the KMT—allied with the KMT in hopes of shaking the traditional KMT stronghold through cross-party cooperation. However, on the eve of the election, the two sides diverged over details concerning candidate nominations and constituency demarcations, ultimately failing to reach a consensus and leading to the collapse of the blue-white alliance. This development not only adds further uncertainty to an already tense electoral race, but also pressures the TPP to readjust its layout at the local level.

Immediately following the breakdown, TPP founding Chairman Ko Wen-je issued a statement emphasizing that "handling the aftermath quickly to prevent a spillover effect" was the top priority. Ko's remarks implied that if the political conflict in the Zhubei election is not properly managed, it could impact the electoral situations in neighboring counties and cities, leading to a decline in voter trust in the TPP. In his statement, Ko noted that the electoral situation in Taipei City remains relatively stable, indicating that the TPP retains a certain base of support in the capital, but he simultaneously warned that Changhua County is showing signs of a lost cause, hinting that the failure of the KMT-TPP alliance could trigger a chain reaction in the central region.

From a historical perspective, the concept of the KMT-TPP alliance first emerged during the 2022 local elections, when the KMT and the TPP attempted to jointly field candidates in certain counties and cities to counter the DPP's comprehensive deployment. Although positive results were achieved in some constituencies, the cooperative model remained experimental and lacked institutionalized negotiation mechanisms. The breakdown in Zhubei once again highlights the vulnerability of cross-party cooperation in Taiwan's local politics: once personal interests of candidates or rivalries among local factions are involved, the rifts in cooperation are often difficult to mend.

The "spillover effect" mentioned by Ko Wen-je refers not only to the possibility that the electoral impact could spread to New Taipei City, Kaohsiung City, Yilan County, and other areas, but also concerns the TPP's national-level image and strategic adjustments. If the setback in Zhubei is interpreted as a miscalculation by the TPP in local elections, it could weaken its bargaining chips ahead of the 2024 presidential election and affect its room for negotiation with other opposition forces. Conversely, if the KMT can rapidly integrate resources in subsequent elections, it may still have the opportunity to recover some lost ground in other counties and cities.

In summary, the collapse of the Zhubei KMT-TPP alliance serves as a warning, reminding Taiwan's opposition forces that pursuing cross-party cooperation requires the establishment of more robust negotiation and allocation mechanisms to prevent local conflicts from affecting the bigger picture. Although Ko Wen-je's appeal was calm in tone, it underscored an urgent need for unity both within and outside the party. In the coming weeks, how the TPP reorganizes its deployment in Hsinchu County and other key constituencies will become an important indicator for observing the trajectory of Taiwan's local politics.