China holds silent drills near Taiwan, raising cross-strait tensions and testing US patience.

A U.S. think tank recently revealed that China may be conducting an unannounced, large-scale military exercise simulating a scenario to encircle and isolate Taiwan. This move comes as Taiwan is about to hold its presidential and legislative elections, causing cross-strait tensions to rise once again. The exercises reportedly include joint naval and air assaults, electronic warfare interference, and intelligence collection, with multiple offensive routes designed to sever Taiwan's ties with the international community in a short period. This "silent" drill approach is intended to avoid triggering prominent international protests or sanctions, and to reduce diplomatic embarrassment for the United States.

Scholars point out that the purpose of the silent exercises is not only to mitigate backlash from international public opinion, but also to avoid exerting excessive pressure on Taiwan prior to the elections, which could produce a counterproductive effect. If China were to directly launch large-scale military actions before the elections, it might be perceived by Taiwanese voters as a threat to democracy, thereby provoking stronger resistance. Conversely, by conducting low-key exercises, the central government can test combat effectiveness and logistical support without being detected by the outside world, while also allowing the U.S. president to save face and avoiding accountability for sudden crises.

Historically, Taiwan's elections have often served as a weather vane for cross-strait relations. During every election cycle, various political parties in Taiwan intensify their external outreach, calling on the international community to support Taiwan's democratic system. Meanwhile, China frequently conducts military exercises or applies diplomatic pressure under the guise of "safeguarding national sovereignty." The timing of this latest exercise coincides with Taiwan's upcoming elections, indicating that Beijing has strategically taken into account the sensitivity of the political timing. Such a strategy has been commonplace in past cross-strait interactions, but conducting it in a "silent" manner demonstrates that China is acting with greater caution under international political pressure.

Regarding regional security, this type of exercise could exacerbate tensions. Taiwan has increased its investments in defense, upgrading its naval, air, and intelligence systems, but it still relies on U.S. security guarantees when facing China's massive military scale. The United States continues to adjust its policy on the Taiwan Strait issue, seeking both to maintain military support for Taiwan and to avoid direct conflict. If China's exercises are perceived as provocative, it could compel the United States to reinforce its military deployment or even provide more direct assistance if necessary, further escalating cross-strait relations.

Internationally, other countries are also monitoring these developments. Nations such as Japan and Australia have repeatedly expressed concern over Taiwan Strait security and have invited Taiwan to participate in military exercises. If China's "silent" exercises are exposed, it could prompt the international society to strengthen security agreements with Taiwan and reassess its tolerance for Chinese military actions. In the long run, this low-key yet highly efficient military exercise approach could become a new normal for China's pressure campaign against Taiwan on the international stage, exerting a profound impact on Taiwan's political stability and international standing.