Birthrate crisis sparks political clash; council warns population may halve in 50 years.

The National Development Council recently released its latest projections on Taiwan's future demographic structure, warning that if Taiwan fails to effectively reverse the current downward trend in the birth rate, the total population could shrink by nearly half in about fifty years. This long-term crisis concerning the survival and development of the nation has once again sparked high-level attention and fierce clashes among the ruling and opposition legislative caucuses. The Kuomintang (KMT) legislative caucus recently held a press conference, openly criticizing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government for failing to produce concrete and effective solutions to address the waves of declining birth rates and population aging over the nearly ten years it has been in power, causing the national security crisis to continue expanding. KMT lawmakers also strongly urged the ruling party to immediately set aside partisan prejudices, convene a national affairs conference, gather consensus from industry, government, academia, research sectors, and all citizens, and jointly formulate a comprehensive and forward-looking population policy white paper.

In response to the opposition's harsh criticisms and policy demands, the DPP legislative caucus adopted a defensive posture, emphasizing that the declining birth rate is an extremely serious national issue that Taiwan and most advanced nations globally must confront, and it should by no means be reduced to a tool for political offense and defense or a war of words among different political parties. Chen Pei-yu, secretary-general of the DPP caucus, pointed out that over the past period, the administrative sector has continuously and systematically promoted multiple support policies, including the "state will help raise your children" initiative, the expansion of public childcare facilities, prioritizing social housing resources for families with children, and substantially increasing child-rearing allowances and prenatal check-up subsidies. The ruling party believes that the current focus lies in how to stably implement and rolling-review existing policy tools, gradually alleviating the heavy burdens young generations face when giving birth to and raising the next generation through substantial financial subsidies and infrastructure support.

Looking back at Taiwan's demographic trajectory, the phenomena of declining birth rates and population aging were not created overnight, but are long-accumulated structural social problems. Taiwan's total fertility rate has continuously hovered near the red line of ultra-low fertility in recent years, and has even repeatedly ranked at the bottom of global lists. Scholars and experts have long analyzed that the fundamental reasons why young people are unwilling to marry or dare not raise the next generation have long transcended the scope of mere fertility subsidies, deeply entrenching themselves within the overall socio-economic structure. These include stubbornly high housing prices and rental burdens in urban areas, the widespread workplace culture of low wages and long working hours, workplace gender inequality leading to difficulties for women returning to the workforce after childbirth, and the uneven distribution of childcare and caregiving resources, among various other factors. These structural dilemmas intertwine, causing many in the young generation to choose to give up under real-world pressures even when they have the desire to start a family.

The opposition's renewed push for a "national affairs conference" this time reflects the impatience and anxiety of all sectors of society regarding the effectiveness of current policies. In the history of Taiwan's democratic constitutional government, national affairs conferences have often been regarded as the highest-level communication platform for addressing major national positioning or historical crises. KMT lawmakers believe that in the face of extreme scenarios where the population might be cut in half in fifty years, the labor population rapidly shrinks, and the finances of social welfare and national health insurance face collapse, relying solely on fragmented, uncoordinated policies from various ministries can no longer turn the tide. Only by elevating the matter to the head of state or the highest level of the Executive Yuan, inviting ruling and opposition party leaders, local government representatives, the business and industrial community, labor groups, and youth representatives to sit down and engage in comprehensive dialogue and resource redistribution, is it possible to find solutions that break away from traditional frameworks, such as drastically adjusting immigration policies, tax incentives, or spatial planning.

However, the ruling party maintains a relatively reserved attitude toward the call for convening a national affairs conference, which is backed by its governance logic and political considerations. The DPP government believes that the promotion of major national policies requires long-term fiscal discipline and administrative continuity, rather than a short-term meeting that descends into mere formalism or political rhetoric. In recent years, the administrative sector has indeed allocated massive budgets through forward-looking infrastructure development and strategies for addressing declining birth rates to invest in improving the child-rearing and childcare environment. Ruling party lawmakers emphasized that policies require time to take effect and must work closely with local governments and civil groups to truly penetrate the grassroots and solve the pain points of young people. If structural problems are arbitrarily channeled into the mobilization of political slogans, it will not only fail to help substantially resolve the issues, but may also disrupt the social welfare and childcare systems currently operating on track.

Reviewing this cross-party offensive and defensive battle centered around the demographic crisis and the national affairs conference highlights the clear cognitive gaps that still exist among all sectors regarding the path choices for "solutions" as Taiwan stands at the crossroads of a super-aged society and population negative growth. The declining birth rate is not merely an increase or decrease in demographic statistics; it directly impacts Taiwan's future economic growth momentum, sources of national defense manpower, labor force structure, and national competitiveness. Whether choosing to forge cross-party consensus through a national affairs conference or continuing to deeply cultivate existing childcare and housing subsidy policies, how the ruling and opposition parties can transcend pan-Blue and pan-Green vicious fights on major issues concerning the lifeblood of national survival, and propose feasible, long-term policy portfolios with appropriate resource allocation, will be a historical test that all of Taiwanese society must jointly and seriously face.