Trump Cites Good US-Iran Talks, Triggering Market Volatility and Oil Surge

US President Donald Trump stated at the United Nations that talks between US and Iranian representatives were "very good," and his remarks immediately became the focus of international financial markets. Over the past few years, US-Iran relations have deteriorated due to Iran's nuclear program and the US unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Both sides have imposed mutual sanctions, and Iran has increased its enriched uranium production capacity, causing persistent tensions in the Middle East. Trump's positive assessment of the talks' outcome suggests that the two sides may restart diplomatic negotiations, prompting investors to reassess the possibility of ending the regional conflict and causing a notable shift in market sentiment.

Against this backdrop, major European stock indices generally closed lower. Germany's DAX, France's CAC 40, and the UK's FTSE 100 all finished with slight declines as investors generally worried that even if negotiations make progress, they could still be accompanied by short-term political uncertainty. European companies, particularly those in the energy, aviation, and defense sectors, are more sensitive to earnings outlooks and stock price performance due to the volatility of the situation in the Middle East. Analysts pointed out that if an agreement is ultimately implemented, it will help reduce geopolitical risks and further boost risk appetite in European markets, though negotiation details and domestic US policy directions still need to be monitored in the near term.

In contrast to the decline in stock markets, international oil prices moved higher in tandem. Brent crude rose after the news was released, as market concerns over supply disruptions resurfaced. Iran is one of the world's major oil exporters; if the risk of war increases, supply uncertainty will drive up oil prices. Conversely, if an agreement succeeds, it is expected to stabilize the oil-producing environment in the Persian Gulf, providing support to oil prices in the long run. In the short term, safe-haven demand remains dominant among investors, causing oil prices to fluctuate between news-driven sentiment and supply-demand expectations.

The potential impact of this round of negotiations is not limited to the energy market, but also affects global financial capital flows. The US dollar index showed weakness after the news of the US-Iran talks was released, with some investor funds shifting toward safe-haven currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen, while capital inflows into emerging markets also showed signs of recovery. The interest rate policies of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve remain the focus of market attention, but if Middle Eastern tensions ease, it will alleviate global inflationary pressures and provide central banks with greater policy flexibility.

Overall, Trump's positive evaluation provided a brief positive signal to the market, though investors remain cautious. The decline in European stocks indicates that the market remains highly sensitive to political risks, while the rise in oil prices serves as a reminder that the energy market remains in an uncertain supply environment. In the future, if the US and Iran can reach a concrete agreement under the UN framework, it is expected to lower geopolitical risks and enhance risk appetite in global markets; conversely, any setback in negotiations or escalation of conflict could once again trigger volatility in capital markets and drastic changes in energy prices.