Goldman Sachs: Taiwan and Korea Face Divergent AI Futures; Aging Crisis Hinders Korean Benefits

The global wave of artificial intelligence continues to sweep across technology and capital markets, and Taiwan and South Korea—both global hubs for semiconductor and high‑technology manufacturing—should be at the forefront of this surge. Yet a recent in‑depth research report from Goldman Sachs Group points out that, although both countries benefit from the robust worldwide demand for AI, which fuels exports and tech‑stock performance, their economic structures and social foundations face markedly different fates. The key divergence lies in South Korea’s severe aging crisis, which threatens to blunt the translation of AI dividends into real wealth for ordinary households, whereas Taiwan’s senior population shows stronger consumption power and a more resilient asset structure.

The report’s core logic rests on an undeniable transmission mechanism between the prosperity of the technology sector and the lived experience of the domestic population. South Korea occupies a critical global position in memory chips and advanced semiconductor foundry, yet the country has become mired in a dramatic decline in fertility and a rapidly aging population. Goldman Sachs notes that South Korea’s pace of aging ranks among the fastest in major economies, shrinking the labor force and rapidly increasing welfare burdens. Consequently, the wealth created by the government and corporations is largely concentrated in a handful of large chaebols and tech giants. For ordinary citizens, severe inflationary pressure and high living costs make it difficult to reap the economic fruits of the AI boom, widening social inequality and generational deprivation.

In contrast, Taiwan, while also confronting the global structural challenges of low birth rates and aging, displays a relatively healthier picture in terms of private wealth accumulation and senior consumption. Cross‑checking Goldman’s observations with domestic and international economic data shows that Taiwan’s traditional manufacturing supply chain and small‑ and medium‑sized enterprises exhibit strong resilience. Coupled with the wealth effects of dividends from the technology sector and rising stock prices, Taiwan’s household net worth has steadily increased over the past few years. More importantly, Taiwan’s senior citizens possess substantial retirement savings and real‑estate assets, and their willingness to spend and actual expenditure are robust, forming a solid pillar of domestic demand that effectively cushions the impact of external economic shocks.

From a macroeconomic perspective, both Taiwan and South Korea heavily rely on foreign trade, especially in semiconductors, servers, and ICT products. When global demand for generative AI and high‑performance computing explodes, both countries’ export figures and corporate revenues deliver impressive results. However, the “quality” and “inclusive” nature of growth become the dividing line. South Korea’s economy is overly dependent on a few top chaebols such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix; when the international technology cycle fluctuates or when domestic structural labor shortages arise, economic fragility surfaces quickly. Taiwan’s industry structure, while also highly concentrated in semiconductors, benefits from the flexibility of mid‑ and downstream supply chains and the widespread presence of SMEs, which disperses wealth distribution and endows the domestic market with greater resilience.

Looking ahead, the report offers profound insights for policymakers in both countries. As AI technology deepens worldwide, industrial upgrading remains the core of national competitiveness, but ensuring that the technological dividends are not merely a feast for the few but genuinely improve the quality of life for the majority has become the most pressing issue. South Korea must urgently address its population crisis and the distributional inequities wrought by the chaebol system, while Taiwan must continue to deepen the value of its domestic‑demand industries and adequately prepare for the imminent challenges of a super‑aged society in terms of medical and long‑term care. The divergent trajectories of Taiwan and South Korea in the AI wave provide a reflective mirror for balancing economic development and social welfare in the era of globalization. (Fact source: Central News Agency)