Trump administration has to do 150 trade deals during 90-day tariff pause, markets skeptical

Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs sparked temporary optimism, yet market volatility remains high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Friday up 619 points, but that came after a week of wild swings, including a 2,000-point plunge on Thursday following the administration’s clarification that tariffs on Chinese goods would be 145%, not the previously assumed 125%. The S&P 500 experienced its worst one-week drop since March 2020, followed by its biggest weekly gain since 2023.

Beyond equities, bond markets are behaving unusually. US Treasury yields surged above 4.5% this week as bond prices fell, reflecting investor fears that America could suffer deeper economic consequences than its trading partners. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of a potential “kerfuffle” in the Treasury market, predicting future Federal Reserve intervention.

Oil prices, another bellwether of economic sentiment, dropped to near four-year lows before rebounding slightly. US crude settled at $61.50 per barrel on Friday, with Brent crude at $64.76. Analysts cite fears of reduced global demand due to Trump’s aggressive trade policy and possible geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran.

Meanwhile, the US dollar suffered its steepest two-day drop since 2022, signaling eroded confidence in the nation’s economic direction. The dollar index fell sharply, while gold surged past $3,200 per troy ounce, reflecting a flight to safe-haven assets.

Despite these signals, the Trump administration remains upbeat. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims over 70 countries are seeking trade talks, though no major deals have been finalized. Still, experts caution that trade agreements typically take years to forge, casting doubt on the administration’s three-month timeline.

The biggest challenge remains China. With tariffs now at 145% on Chinese imports and Beijing retaliating with 125% tariffs, the world’s two largest economies appear locked in a costly standoff.

Wall Street analysts, including at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, now estimate that the chance of a US-led global recession this year is essentially a coin toss — a sobering reminder that the stakes of Trump’s tariff gamble are nothing short of historic.