Putin and Trump to most likely skip Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul

Hopes for a significant breakthrough in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine dimmed on Thursday as both Russian President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed they would not attend proposed peace talks in Istanbul. The summit, seen as a potential turning point in Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II, now proceeds without the presence of its two most influential figures.

Putin had proposed direct negotiations with Ukraine “without preconditions” over the weekend, sparking anticipation about possible high-level diplomacy. However, the Kremlin confirmed late Wednesday that the Russian delegation would be led by presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky and Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin. The absence of Putin, who never officially confirmed attendance, and Trump, who had earlier expressed interest, significantly lowers expectations for a landmark agreement.

The Ukrainian side, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, remains hesitant. On his way to Turkey, Zelenskiy stated he would only participate in direct negotiations if Putin were also present. “The answers to all questions about this war… are in Moscow,” he said during his nightly address, suggesting that real progress depends on Russia’s leadership being directly involved.

The United States, while not sending Trump, has dispatched a high-level delegation including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg. According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, early coordination with Rubio focused on Ukraine’s peace vision and a possible 30-day ceasefire, which Trump has been advocating.

Russia, while showing interest in discussions, appears more cautious. Putin has insisted on initiating talks before committing to a ceasefire. Kremlin sources said the agenda might also include proposals for a large prisoner exchange. However, with Russian forces controlling roughly a fifth of Ukraine, Moscow has so far offered few substantive concessions.

The planned talks recall an earlier negotiation attempt in March 2022, also held in Istanbul, which collapsed despite a draft agreement. That proposal included Ukrainian neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees, terms Kyiv now firmly rejects.

Meanwhile, Trump’s growing frustration with both sides has led him to float the idea of imposing secondary sanctions on Russia if it is perceived to be obstructing peace efforts. U.S. officials have hinted at targeting Russian oil buyers and other financial avenues.

As the Istanbul talks proceed without the top brass, the global community watches cautiously, hoping the technocrats can lay groundwork for future, more decisive negotiations.