While we know that the situation between Taiwan and China has always been tense, it has escalated to a whole new level in the recent times. This is because of several incidents that have triggered China and its government. First of all, China is not at all happy with the Taiwan arms deal that it has done with the US government.
The Chinese government also told the US government to not go ahead with the deal but they did not listen. Apart from that, China was also angry that Taiwan opposed the Hong Kong extradition bill, and very strongly at that. Also, China has threatened Taiwan that military action is possible if they continue to go towards achieving Independence from China.
At the moment, this is a threat from the Chinese government but experts from Japan have been thinking of how things would turn out if China really carried out military action against the island nation.
At first, the experts say that Taiwan will lose one of its allies which is also its last ally, Kinmen. It is said that the citizens of Kinmen will vote to merge with China in 2020 according to Japan’s Canon Institute for Global Studies.
This debate was held between 50 experts including serving government officials, military officers, academics, business people and journalists, and they have come to this conclusion.
Also, a scenario similar to Russia may arise where Russia took over the island of Crimea. Similarly, China may also use military force to capture Taiwan. Although China says that military action is the worst-case scenario when it comes to Taiwan, the Japanese newspaper says that the Chinese government can still have a serious thought about it if the situation gets out of control.
For Taiwan’s local politics, the experts say that there will be further polarization between the pro-US and the pro-China groups in the country.